Jeremy Clarkson

THIS week, the actor Chris Hemsworth was photographed with his agreeable-looking child, in the sunshine, outside their beachfront home in the exclusive Australian surfing resort of Byron Bay.

And I guess everyone thought when they saw the picture: “Well, lockdown’s working pretty well for him.”

Yeah, and it can’t be too bad either for Mrs Hemsworth. Living by the sea, in paradise, with a triangular- torsoed Hollywood hunk.

But then if you take a glance at your social media, you’ll notice that absolutely everyone else is living the Hemsworth dream.

It’s an endless parade of people’s perfect sourdough baking and of jolly board games with the kids.

This morning, my Instagram feed featured a young family doing a fancy dress dinner, a girl on an enormous horse, a woman sprawled on the bonnet of a Mercedes SL, a man with a cute dog, doing exercises, and a shot of some cows taken through a wisteria bush.

On Instagram, no one is ever bored, it never rains and everyone’s breasts are perfect. Especially Chris Hemsworth’s.

FAT WIFE SLOBBING OUT

This is having an effect on the nation’s teenagers. They have been told there will be no exams this year and that all their school work was for nothing. They’ve been told they have to stay indoors and that they can’t see their friends.

And it’s driving them mad because they do not read newspapers. They do not listen to the BBC news. And they replaced Radio 1 with Spotify five years ago.

This means they never hear any actual news. So they don’t know what’s going on.

Instead they look at their phones (constantly) and all they can see are pretty girls with swimsuits up their a*** cheeks, and Chris Hemsworth, and parents who have turned the cellar into a nightclub and lots of cute ducklings.

And they’re thinking, as they watch the rain trickle down the windows at their house: “Why can’t I have some of that?”

In the olden days we’d have smacked their bottoms and told them to stop being spoiled, but that’s not allowed any more. So I’ve come up with another idea . . .

If you are an old person stuck in a tower block, waiting for Covid-19 to stick its warty little head through the letterbox, post a picture of your surroundings on Instagram. Don’t hold back. Show us the overflowing cat litter and the photograph of your husband, alone in his hospital bed.

Show us also pictures of your sister who is in a care home and hasn’t had a visitor for five weeks.

And your food cupboard which has nothing in it any more. And your empty bottle of Senokot.

REALITY OF LOCKDOWN

In fact, we should all get in on the act. Don’t wait for a joyous moment to photograph and share. Send us instead pictures of stuff you didn’t enjoy.

The particularly gruesome bit of wax you’ve just pulled out of your left ear. The turd your dog just did on the mat. Your fat other half slobbing out in front of the TV.

Your kids throwing Monopoly pieces at one another after a row over Fenchurch Street station.

Instead of sharing your perfect loaf, send pictures of the charred wreck that went wrong, the scarf full of dropped stitches, the wonky self-assembly garden furniture that broke the first time you sat on it.

Hit us with the reality of lockdown. Admit that it’s one part happiness and nine parts ditch water.

And then maybe teenagers will start to understand that life is bookended by the lucky and the not so lucky. At one end you’ve got the Hemsworths. At the other you’ve got a frightened old man in a tenement block in Bermondsey.

Maybe then they will understand they are somewhere in the middle, and stop bloody complaining.

Cocoa-vid-19

There is much debate about what increases your chances of dying from Covid-19.
But there’s one thing everyone agrees on. It likes to kill fatties most of all. And how have we responded to this?

Well, I don’t know about you but I’ve addressed the issue by sitting on a sofa for six hours a day, eating slabs of Cadbury’s Fruit & Nut chocolate and getting up only to go to the fridge for another bottle of wine.

I guess I’m working on the principle that soon I’ll be so fat, there won’t be room in the house for me and the virus as well.

But there is one problem.

There are now so many empty bottles sitting by the bins at the bottom of the drive I just know my neighbours will assume I’ve been throwing illegal parties, and call the police.

Tube boob

A nurse made headlines this week after moaning about the cramped conditions on a London Tube train at 5.45am.

She said she was risking her life at work and pointed out that she shouldn’t have to risk it even more while commuting. Fair point, you might think. But hang on.

In the olden days – before March – people may well have been on a Tube train at that time because they were coming home from a club.

But these days, nobody on a Tube train at quarter to six in the morning is there for fun. They’re ALL going to work.

There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s what most of us have been told to do all along. But I do agree that commuting on a cramped Tube is bloody dangerous.

So I ask once again for parking restrictions to be lifted immediately, as this would allow people to go to work in the blissful self-isolation of their own cars.

Portsmouth from above

An aerial photograph of Portsmouth taken this week showed that the colour of the sea has turned from the usual mud brown to a shimmering, aquamarine blue.

It’s the sort of colour you usually associate with the Caribbean, and it is genuinely amazing.

Naturally, green people are saying it happened because the lockdown means less traffic. And they may be right.

Or, let me just lob this one in . . .  it happened because the photographer was experimenting with some of the filters on his new phone.

My phone’s got so many that if you gave me long enough, I could take a selfie and make me look like Chris Hemsworth. Or his wife.

Shell shock

For the past couple of years, farmers have not been allowed to spray their bright yellow oil seed rape with insecticides called neonicotinoids.

As a result, a lot of my crop is dead.

But on the upside, I’m now seeing more bumble bees than I have in years. And yesterday I saw a tortoiseshell butterfly, the first I’ve found since about 1972.

But that said, my eyesight is so bad these days, it could have been an actual tortoise.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11531270/instagram-celebs-boasting-lockdown/

By DAILYMAIL.COM REPORTER

• Jessica Sunok, 22, from Raleigh, North Carolina, boasts more than 577,000 followers on Instagram, and earns hundreds of thousands from paid-for posts 
• She also works as a professional model, and predicts that she will have earned upwards of $1 million this year 
• Before her break-up, Jessica was working as a sales manager at a local mall 
• After ending her relationship with her boyfriend of seven years, she decided to try her hand at modeling full-time 
• She began working as a model at a local car show, and also ramped up the amount and quality of content she was posting on Instagram 

An influencer who earns more than $100,000 a month has revealed how a bad break-up motivated her to quit her 9-5 job and become an Instagram model – a lucrative career change that has seen her amass a legion of followers.   

Jessica Sunok, 22, from Raleigh, North Carolina, boasts over 577,000 followers on her Instagram page @jessicasunok where she posts sizzling pictures of her curvaceous body in skin-tight lingerie and racy bikinis.

Before turning her attention to Instagram, Jessica was scraping by to make ends meet while working as a sales manager for kiosks at a shopping mall, making just $12-an-hour – however, one thing changed it all.

Jessica was heartbroken after breaking up with her ‘on and off’ boyfriend in 2016. But rather than dwell on her heartache, she chose to channel all of her energy into modeling, in an attempt to distract herself.  

The online model started her Instagram page in 2012 and always had a passion for modeling but until her break-up, she had never thought about making a career out of it.

But when she finally decided to give modeling a go full-time, she threw herself into it wholeheartedly, starting out at a local car show near her home. There, she met the owner, and soon began working as a show girl and took part in several bikini contests, and her photoshoots were soon published in magazines.

Over the next few years, Jessica’s Instagram following skyrocketed and she finally had the courage to leave her sales job to work as a full-time Instagram model.

She now makes over $100,000-a-month and expects to earn over $1 million this year from brand sponsorships and modeling work. 

Jessica said: ‘I was a hairdresser specializing in hair extensions. I also worked in the mall as a sales manager for multiple kiosks. I made roughly $12-$15 an hour. 

‘I loved my job for the passion of seeing how happy and beautiful I could make women feel! I didn’t like how rude sometimes pedestrians in the mall can be to sales reps.

‘I started modeling when I broke up with my boyfriend of seven years, it was my way of distracting myself and put all my energy into myself. It took a lot of time and investing to get to where I am, I wouldn’t change a thing. ‘

Jessica now receives over 50 marriage proposals a week from her adoring fans – and one even sent the model $600 into her bank account just to get her attention.

She said: ‘My favorite comments are when I get complimented on my personality and I’m asked to speak more! I love how my fans can see the real me through just an image! It makes my heart swell. 

‘I probably get an average of 50 marriage proposals a week I believe.’

‘I once had a follower send me $600 to get his attention, I definitely saw that transaction!’

The 22-year-old calls herself a devout Christian but said her pictures do not define her relationship with God.

She said: ‘I had struggled my entire life with my faith in God, I went through some pretty traumatic experiences as a child and adult that made me question a loving “God”.

‘I believe tests are not made to be easy and we wouldn’t be put through anything we weren’t made to handle.

‘There is good energy and bad energy, you have to train your mind to see all your blessing. Then your life will become gold! Angels speak to us every day.

‘I recently was baptized for the first time, it was a huge moment for god and me.

‘I wanted to share it with everyone regardless of their own opinions.

‘My relationship with God is between us. I wanted to share that life-changing moment with my fans, hoping it might reach someone who needs hope and love as well.

‘The Bible teaches forgiveness, we all need this.’ 

Author John Lincoln

If you own an agency, or are with an agency, you are probably wondering how things will change due to COVID-19. I’ve spent a good amount of time thinking about this and here is what I predict will happen. 

1. Strategy with change

Everything a digital marketing agency does starts with their strategy, so I think it is important we address this first. 

How it will change

There have been clear changes to supply and demand online. The product market fit has also been modified for almost every category on some level due to the ripple effect of COVID-19. Because of this, agencies are going to have to look at themselves and their clients through the following lenses:

• How has the need of their customer base changed?
• How have their budgets changed?
• Are they still a good customer target?
• Should they target a different customer profile?
• Do they still have the right services to help those customers?

Agencies need to look at their own product market fit and that of their customers. This will be a major exercise through the rest of 2020.

How to win

You need to take a closer look at your customer and refine your strategy around their new pain points. 

For example, we have seen searches drop dramatically for “near me” terms and spike for “delivery” terms. We have seen YouTube grow 15% in traffic, while at the same time ad revenue has gone down. 

Agencies will need to modify the way they take their clients to market, their services and their pricing for doing so.

Bonus: Immediate tips for how digital agencies should update client strategy

• A page on their website directly addressing COVID-19 and how they are helping customers. This should be visible on every page of the site. It should also give an update on any changes to the business.
• They need to bring their new messaging strategy to their advertising creatives, their content marketing and email marketing teams, and TV and radio. 
• They need to run a campaign that clearly states how they are helping their customer — and they need to track the results. If the results are good, they can tout how they helped customers in a follow-up marketing campaign later in 2020.

2. Organization 

There is no doubt that the way organizations operate will change in the short-term due to this. Agencies are no exception. 

How they will change

With everyone working remote, you can expect employees and employers to get used to this. Rent is not cheap, and in general, agency profitability is low. In most cases, agencies have net profits between 5% and 30% and rent is a big part of that cost as the agency often likes to have a nice office to attract staff and wow customers. If customers don’t want to meet in their office and the staff want to work from home, this means big savings for the company. The best part is that this money can be used to invest more in client success and employee success.

But not having an office brings other large challenges: lack of team/company culture, lack of community, collaboration and so much more. I personally love having an office and seeing our team every day. Without one, agency owners may have management challenges and will need processes and accountability, such as:

• Time tracking on clients
• Daily check-ins with team 
• Weekly accountability 

How to win

This is up to each agency owner to decide, and time will tell how important the office is long term. But for now, a few things that will help are video calls including:

• Non-work related items, such as happy hours or chatting for team building 
• And then, of course, multiple department check-ins each week 

3. Communication

For agencies, client communication is going to change. 

How it will change

Clients generally love in-person meetings at their office or our office. They also enjoy lunch, coffee or happy hour. That all has gone out the window now. This places a necessity for everyone still to show up to those meetings just as they would in-person, but via video call. 

How to win

You need to show up to the video call dressed fairly nice, with some decent lighting and a background that is presentable. I believe a nice set-up here will go a very long way with clients. The video call is an experience, so this becomes an entirely new skill set. I expect to see a spike in custom video backgrounds for company employees.

Imagine you’re doing a video call with a staff member at our company. One call has someone in a sweatshirt, hair all messed up, poor lighting, and in the background you see their laundry all over the floor. 

Now imagine that same call with someone who has taken the time to put on a nice shirt, brush their hair, has clear lighting on their face and the background is a whiteboard with the company logo on it so they can write things down and brainstorm. During the meeting, you see your digital marketing strategy written down each week and delivered back to you. This is an entirely different experience — one that you’ve grown to expect in a professional environment.

Conclusion

COVID-19 almost seems unreal due to the magnitude of impact it has had on the world, but we will get through it and come out stronger. As we progress, it is important to adapt — and agencies are no exception. For agencies, think about your new customer needs, employee needs and communication strategy. For those who use agencies, we agency owners appreciate you.

Michael Kramer

Amazon.com Inc.’s (AMZN) stock was trading lower on May 1, by roughly 8% after reporting better than expected revenue, but missing earnings estimates. Additionally, the company issued revenue guidance that was in line with forecasts but warned rising costs would suppress operating income. Expectations of these rising costs may have already been getting built into the stock in recent weeks, with the technical chart flashing bearish warning signs.

The company has never been one to shy away from spending a lot to build for the future. Amazon has been able to successfully do this in recent years, helped by the explosive growth from Amazon’s web services (AWS). However, it also means that earnings estimates for the stock will need to fall.

Technical Warnings Signs Emerge

Even when heading into results, the stock saw a substantial region of selling around the $2,440 level. Since the middle of April, the stock was battling to rise at that price level and failed despite multiple attempts. It suggests that there is a great deal of selling pressure that resides at that level. Since reporting results, it seems the sellers have moved lower, and if the stock break support at $2,285, it could result in the shares falling to around $2,090, a decline of about 9% from its price of $2,290 on May 1.

But more concerning is that the stock is forming a bearish divergence noted by the lower highs in the relative strength index, as the equity was making record highs. It would suggest that momentum in Amazon is now shifting from bullish to bearish and that shares could have even further to fall then the initial 9%.

Fundamentals Shift

The technical trends appear to reflect the changes in the fundamental story. In recent years the stock had been viewed as a revenue growth story. However, as earnings have climbed, the investment thesis shifted from revenue growth to earnings growth. But investors might need to revisit this thesis over the short-term as earnings estimates fall and valuation rises. It will put more focus on the company’s ability to grow its revenue fast enough to satisfy investors’ demands.

Analysts now see the company earning $24.45 per share in 2020, which is down from $27.38 on April 30. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for 2021 have declined to $38.23 per share from $39.16 per share. It leaves the stock trading for a one-year forward PE ratio of 58.6. This sounds high, but when adjusting for earnings growth in 2021 of 56.4%, it seems fairly reasonable. However, one must consider that earnings estimates may continue to decline, and that likely means that future growth rates contract and the PE ratios may rise.

AWS Drive Growth

The company reported revenue of $75.45 billion, which was about 1.8% higher than estimates for $74.15 billion. Meanwhile, earnings came in at $5.01 per share and missed estimates by about 19.8%. The company did see robust growth out of its AWS business unit, which rose by almost 33% to $10.2 billion while providing operating income of $3.075 billion. The AWS unit’s operating income accounted for nearly all of Amazon’s total operating income of $3.9 billion.

With the company back in spending mode, investors will need to recalibrate their expectations once again. It means refocusing emphasis on earnings growth to revenue growth and that a specific group of investors may decide to move on, rather than participate in a period of renewed spending.

Michael Kramer is a financial market strategist and the portfolio manager of the Mott Capital Thematic Growth Portfolio.

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kramermichael/2020/05/01/amazons-pullback-may-only-be-starting/#44663e962012

Marshall Shepherd

Coronavirus continues to reshape everything that is familiar to us. This morning I learned that Atlanta’s iconic Peachtree Road Race has been moved to Thanksgiving Day because of COVID-19. Atlantans (native or transplants) know that the Peachtree Road Race, since 1970, is as synonymous with the 4th of July as fireworks. The road race joins another iconic sporting event, The Masters golf tournament, in moving to November because of the historic pandemic. As you can imagine, the weather is quite different in Atlanta during late November. Here is how the weather will be different?

The Peachtree Road Race is considered to be world’s largest 10-kilometer race. According to sources, approximately 60,000 runners participated in 2019. The race is very much a sports competition, but it has also become an annual summer ritual for amateur and professional runners. Every year I see friends proudly posting their registration credentials for a coveted spot in the race. The Atlanta Track Club posted the following message on its website this week: “Consistent with guidance we will receive from health experts in the fall, the 51st Running of the AJC Peachtree Road Race will take place on November 26, 2020.”

Terri Smith is a long-time meteorologist with The Weather Channel. Her post on social media sums up my initial thoughts as well, “Is it really the Peachtree without heat and humidity: Average low July 4th: 71.1 deg Average low Nov 26th: 41.2 deg.” Smith received the temperature data from Weather Channel colleague Jessica Arnoldy. The start times for the race are typically in waves ranging from about 6:25 am to 8:40 am according to WABE. Though the summer solstice (in June) represents the peak in receipt of energy from the sun, July is often the hottest month in Atlanta. The day before the 2019 race, CBS 46 Atlanta Chief Meteorologist Jennifer Valdez tweeted the forecast below and cautioned that it was going to be one of the hottest starts to the race on record. With humidity, temperatures felt like the low to mid eighties during the race.

Terri Smith is a long-time meteorologist with The Weather Channel. Her post on social media sums up my initial thoughts as well, “Is it really the Peachtree without heat and humidity: Average low July 4th: 71.1 deg Average low Nov 26th: 41.2 deg.” Smith received the temperature data from Weather Channel colleague Jessica Arnoldy. The start times for the race are typically in waves ranging from about 6:25 am to 8:40 am according to WABE. Though the summer solstice (in June) represents the peak in receipt of energy from the sun, July is often the hottest month in Atlanta. The day before the 2019 race, CBS 46 Atlanta Chief Meteorologist Jennifer Valdez tweeted the forecast below and cautioned that it was going to be one of the hottest starts to the race on record. With humidity, temperatures felt like the low to mid eighties during the race.

Weather conditions affect performance so it will be interesting to see how running times from the Thanksgiving race compare to previous years. Here are some ways, according to the Active.com website, that weather affects running performance:

• Temperature: running pace is adversely affected as temperatures increase. The website notes that an increase in temperature from 60 degrees F to 80 degrees F can increase a mile pace by 12 to 15%.
• Humidity: higher humidity increases heart rate significantly, and hydration is even more critical.

Family friend Tasha Allen is the Director of Accounting and Human Resources at the Georgia Chamber of Commerce. She has run the Peachtree Road Race and told me, “The heat was always a problem for me….since I am not a real runner I would never receive an early wave time making my start time closer to 8am, and it’s usually 80-85 degrees by then.” At such a late start time, the temperatures are approaching or exceeding 90 degrees F by the end of the race for some runners. Allen went on to say, “Having the race on Thanksgiving hopefully will eliminate the heat issue. BUT this is Georgia and we could still have an unusual hot day on Thanksgiving (smile).”

I will put on my “meteorologist and Director of University of Georgia Atmospheric Sciences program” hat and point out an additional weather factor that Thanksgiving introduces, a somewhat greater possibility of rainfall than in July. November is a weather transition period for the state of Georgia. The jet stream is starting to return to the region and frontal systems are more active. During July, frontal activity is minimal, and the main threat of rainfall is from pop-up afternoon storms.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2020/05/01/coronavirus-forces-worlds-largest-10k-race-from-july-4th-to-thanksgivinghow-will-weather-differ/#6e88b8a7ceae